ClimateWire:
As nations duke it out over whether and how much to reduce emissions, a group of researchers is looking at climate change responsibility in a whole new light.
In a study published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers argue that wealthy, greenhouse gas-spewing individuals from America to Angola are responsible for abating climate change.
By tracking emissions from individuals in all countries rather than nations as a whole, the report has the potential to move the international global warming debate beyond entrenched skirmishes between developed and developing nations over the burden of slashing greenhouse gas output.
"This approach gives responsibilities to different countries based on the number of high emitters," said Shoibal Chakravarty, lead author of the study and part of the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University.
Chakravarty noted that emerging countries like China and India, in particular, still have millions of people living in poverty. At the same time, he said, a sizable portion are wealthy and are driving up those countries' emissions levels.
"Even if the average emissions are still low, a large enough population would be contributing to global warming," he said. "They should be doing something about it, as well."
The idea of holding high emitters responsible for their CO2 output, no matter from where they hail, is a fairly new one. It essentially calls for a new way of looking at the concept of "common but differentiated responsibilities."
That fairness principle has been chiseled into international climate deals and has guided discussions among countries over climate actions. It also is at the core of the current Kyoto Protocol obligations, which require nothing of fast-growing developing countries like China and India.
The PNAS study loosely builds on the idea of "greenhouse development rights" outlined by nonprofit groups that creates a system in which payments for emissions reductions are based on a country's level of responsibility for emissions and its capacity to pay for them. The Heinrich Böll Foundation also produced a report last year laying out how the wealthiest and biggest emitters -- whether in the United States or Bangladesh -- can contribute to a goal of keeping warming below a 2 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures.
'No one gets a pass'
The newest research uses individual emissions rather than income to reward improvements in national carbon intensity.
Assuming a global fossil fuel target of 30 billion tons of CO2 for 2030, the researchers estimated that the individual emissions cap would be 10.8 tons of CO2. That would leave about 1.13 billion people above the cap. If a country develops faster and has a rising number of high emitters, it would then have to do more.
"In our interpretation of fairness, individuals who emit similar amounts of CO2, regardless of where they live, are expected to contribute to fossil-fuel CO2 emission reductions in similar ways," the authors wrote.
"In principle, no country gets a pass, because even in the poorest countries some individuals have CO2 emissions above the universal emission cap."
The scheme does not specify how any nation would meet its responsibilities. But it shows that the United States and middle-income countries defined as part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) -- both with high numbers of individual emitters above the threshold -- must address rising emissions immediately. China, by contrast, doesn't currently have as many people spewing greenhouse gases over that threshold, and responsibility for climate action under this scenario wouldn't start until about 2020.
Chakravarty said he and other scientists discussed the research at a March U.N. climate conference in Bonn, Germany, and currently are holding several briefings as negotiators work to hammer out an international treaty. Arne Jungjohann, who directs the Heinrich Böll Foundation's Environment and Global Dialogue Program, said he believes the notion of holding individuals responsible for high emissions is gaining traction.
The Mexican government, which has been at the forefront of helping rich and poor nations bridge the gap on climate change responsibilities, is working to integrate the concept into its negotiating position, he said.
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